Earthquakes, Induced – Prediction is Weak, but There is Hope From the Animals

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By Professor Victoria Sutton

July 28, 2024

Guest Opinion. Even without scientific tracking data, the folk who live in Oklahoma will tell you that earthquakes have greatly increased over the past several years. Why? Can the U.S. Geological Surveyu (USGS) predict these earthquakes?

The earth is covered with about 15 tectonic plates that slide around on the surface. (Some liken the earth’s mantle to the skin of an orange in proportion and comparative density.) These fault lines are typically where earthquakes occur as a result of sudden movements of these plates. This can explain a lot of earthquakes that occur along the fault lines all along the west coast of the Americas.

However, there are earthquakes that occur as secondary seismic events to other earthquakes or they are “induced”, or as I called it “inspired”. Such induced or inspired earthquakes have been tracked by the USGS (the agency with the lead for earthquake research), and there is a definite uptick in earthquakes in Oklahoma. 

Fracking

The first question you probably want to ask is whether this uptick in earthquakes is due to the relatively recent use of fracturing rock to elicit more oil that was otherwise unrecoverable. It would be reasonable to assume that cracking rock 3-4 km below the surface might cause seismic waves that induce an earthquake.

USGS has concluded that the problem is not fracking, but the deep disposal of wastewater from oil and gas drilling. The deep injection of wastewater that is deposited below the water tables to avoid water contamination, makes up about 90% of the underground injection compared to 10% from fracking.

These underground injection wells are heavily regulated.

However, USGS found that the largest earthquake induced by fracking in Oklahoma was a 3.6 rated earthquake in 2019. Up until this week, the largest known earthquake in Texas was a 4.0 rated earthquake in 2019. This week, Texas had a 4.8 and a 4.9 earthquake right in the heart of the Permian Basin, so it is yet to be determined whether it was caused by the recent initiation of fracking activity or waste water injection from ongoing oil and gas operations.

Damage to private property

Although the oil and gas companies may own the mineral rights they are limited to not damaging the surface rights of the surface rights owner. Almost all mineral rights have been sold to someone other than the surface owner in Texas, so this is a well developed area of the law.

Those of you who are lawyers may think back to Pennsylvania Coal Co. v. Mahon, 260 U.S. 393 (1922), a case where a coal company in Pennsylvania sold the surface rights to land owners for homes, with a waiver of their right to claim any damages from the coal mining, and at a lower price. When the surfaces started to collapse and the homes with them, the state legislature intervened with a law that prohibited the damage to the surface. However, Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes of the U.S. Supreme Court, found that the legislation was a constitutional taking and the coal company was owed just compensation. The fact they had sold the surface rights at a lower cost with the disclaimer for any damage, meant that the homeowners were not entitled to more than they bought, thus they had to live with the consequential loss of their homes. Unless the surface rights to homes were sold with a disclaimer for fracking or underground injection damages, then the oil and gas companies would be liable for damages to surface rights of homes.

USGS has the lead on the detection of earthquakes but they readily admit they cannot predict them in advance of their occurrence.

The USGS has said that

Neither the USGS [United States Geological Survey] nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. We do not know how, and we do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future.

With the 300% increase in earthquakes in Oklahoma it would be prudent to find some ways to predict their occurrence.

Further, earthquakes are becoming deadlier, in part because of the increase in density of housing and population. The response to earthquakes is fairly recent (50-60 years), when the United Nations General Assembly passed Resolution 2034 in 1965 to assist victims of nations with earthquake damages.

Traditional Ecological Knowledge

Being aware of clues from the environment has become one of the most promising areas of research for predicting earthquakes. The “seismic sense” of animals can predict an earthquake sometimes weeks ahead of its occurrence. Many different families and classes of animals react to a coming earthquake — dogs, birds, snakes, cows, elephants and others. They leave their nesting places hours or days before an earthquake, or in some cases dogs have been known to become restless, bark or even run away in advance of an earthquake.

Recent research from the Max-Planck Institute has focused on monitoring the changes in behavior from animals known to have a premonition or a “seismic sense” in advance of an earthquake. The scientists are placing motion sensors on the animals to detect any change in their movements or behaviors as a way to collect data that might be available to analyze in the event of an earthquake.

Traditional Stories

The Native people of the Pacific northwest are on the San Juan Fault line and so have experiences with earthquakes. There are two stories that have been passed down about earthquakes with art that depicts points in the story.

This is a depiction of a story of Earthquake Foot where the dancer falls into the drum and gets earthquake foot, and each time his foot touches the ground there are tremors. This story as they explain teaches us to have foresight that earthquakes and tsunamis will recur, and that we are part of the earth process.

The earthquake mask is the hereditary property of particular families in a Haida Nation that is responsible for the ceremonies and the mask. The mask is constructed so that the eyebrows and mouth move during the dance and are said to tell us when the earth will move.

These stories through art and oral history are important to understand more about prediction.

Practices of the indigenous people near the epicenter of the 2004 tsunami which followed an earthquake saved many lives. Only seven people out of 78,000 died in the tsunami.

The oral tradition consisting of stories and songs carrying the messages of early experience of tsunamis made the local people of Simeulue Island conscious regarding the prediction of tsunami waves. The oral stories and songs taught people that when an earthquake occurs then they should go to the coast and watch the movement of the tides. If the low tide or retreat of the tide occurs soon after the earthquake, then run towards the higher ground as the low tide will follow up with giant waves.

Prediction

Scientists are urging the field to collaborate with Indigenous people and to use traditional knowledge of earthquake prediction to save lives. With the admission from western science that an earthquake has never been predicted, and as we increasingly induce earthquakes, and experience greater damage and loss of lives due to earthquakes, it is imperative to draw from fields of knowledge that can predict earthquakes. Fields that work together (like western science and indigenous science can begin to prepare for the certainty of the next earthquake. Preparing society to be in closer touch with the animals and environment around them to observe behaviors of animals including dogs, cats and birds, may bring us a little closer to being able to predict the next earthquake.

To read more articles by Professor Sutton go to:  https://profvictoria.substack.com/ 

Professor Victoria Sutton (Lumbee) is a law professor on the faculty of Texas Tech University. In 2005, Sutton became a founding member of the National Congress of American Indians, Policy Advisory Board to the NCAI Policy Center, positioning the Native American community to act and lead on policy issues affecting Indigenous communities in the United States.