Post-Labor Day Campaign Sprints

Native Vote 2026

Labor Day is traditionally when the folks who really don’t care about politics start to pay attention to the coming November elections. Then, this year that’s kind of difficult because there’s a barrage of distractions (most coming from the president) that are designed to piss people off and turn them away from thinking about anything political.

As we begin this post-Labor Day sprint: There is a trade war going on with Canada (as in our neighbor) and a war in Iran without a clear strategy, objective, or exit plan. And the price of energy — one of the key planks that Trump campaigned on two years ago — continues to burden family budgets.

To read more articles by Mark Trahant, go to: Marktrahant.substack.com

But we’re talking about other “important things: The renaming of a lake, a state, and probably more; turning the White House into Biff Tannen’s Pleasure Paradise and Casino; and issuing new dollar coins (that don’t cost a buck) as a tribute to the Great Leader.

We are also fighting against the relentless attacks on the process of elections, one that continues even while ballots are in the mail.

There is also the one issue that unites Americans: Growing concern about the rush to build data centers (and by extension, concerns about where we are headed with Artificial Intelligence.) Trump leading the opposition on this issue is, well, perfect because it reflects a measure of his unpopularity that can actually grow worse.

A recent Gallup poll found that 71 percent of Americans oppose local data center construction (just about half, strongly oppose) and only 27 percent are in favor. Trump’s average polling is slightly better, roughly a third think he’s doing a good job. (And it’s mostly in mountain states like the one where I live, Idaho. Even in the deep south, Trump is underwater.)

That all sets the stage.

A bit of history from the Smithsonian (posted while the institution is still allowed to explore political history).

Congressional elections, held in the middle of a president’s term, are usually referenda on a president and his policies. Only twice has a president’s party gained seats in his first midterm election. But among all midterm elections, some have been more consequential than others.

Key point is that presidents mostly fare poorly in midterms.

Then-Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland speaking during President Biden’s boarding school apology session at Gila River in Arizona.

Now the House and Senate

Post-Labor Day polling is usually pretty close to what we will see in November.

Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson write in The Silver Bulletin:

“… midterm races in the modern era tend not to change all that much between Labor Day and Election Day. The topline numbers in FLIPR, our midterm election model, have been quite steady since we launched it a few weeks ago, and we’d probably expect them to stay that way.”

But that’s big picture data. Again from the Silver Bulletin.

“Finally, it’s worth remembering that even small swings matter; our model is pretty sensitive at the margins. It’s probably going to be a blue year, but there are different shades of blue. But whether the 2026 national environment ends up looking closer to a pale eggshell or a dark navy will have massive implications for whether the Democratic Party’s year is spectacular or just okay. Democrats will need to win the popular vote by at least 3 points to be favored to win the House, and by at least 4 to 5 points if they want a double-digit majority. Even if they do win, this will affect how many House seats they pick up.”

How deep with the shade of blue be?

There are 35 Senate seats are up for election and Democrats must pick up four seats in total. Doable in this climate. The House is a much easier ramp, Democrats only need to net three seats to take the majority.

Peggy, Mary and Deb

All of this history and data is significant when considering the Indigenous candidates running in 2026.

What makes this cycle different is that all three of the major candidates are front runners: Peggy Flanagan, White Earth Nation, running for the Senate in Minnesota; Mary Peltola, Yup’ik, for that office in Alaska; and Deb Haaland, Laguna Pueblo, campaigning for governor in New Mexico (Most of the press is still writing, “gee whiz, Native candidates are running for top offices.” Pfft. That’s an old story.)

Let’s look at where these three women stand as the fall campaign season kicks off.

We’ll start in New Mexico (new America, in Trump world.)

@debhaalandnmI will always stand up for what makes New Mexico, New Mexico.

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A TV station in Albuquerque, KRQE reports:

“A recent independent poll conducted by BSP Research shows Haaland, the Democratic candidate and former U.S Secretary of the Interior, receiving 41% of the projected vote. While Hull, the Republican candidate and longtime former Rio Rancho Mayor, is polling at 24%, with 27% of the population still undecided and 3% not planning on voting in the upcoming election.”

And …

“KRQE Political Analyst Gabriel Sanchez and Director of Research for BSP credits the 17-point lead for Haaland to several advantages: “She’s got the commanding financial advantage, name recognition, and a blue state trending towards democrat. Everything is pointing towards Haaland being victorious.”

Moving to Minnesota, the most recent polling for the Senate race is more than a month old. KSPT/Survey USA shows Flanagan with a five point lead, 46 to 41 percent over her Republican opponent, Michelle Tafoya.

The “tabs” are particularly interesting here.

“Currently, Flanagan is handily winning the youngest voters, but Tafoya gains much more support among older voters, taking the lead in the 50+ age range. The margins, right now, are in Flanagan’s favor, though. Gender: Flanagan has a 16-point lead among women while Tafoya has a 6-point edge among men. Region: Unlike in the governor’s race, everywhere outside the Twin Cities metro area is leaning Republican in this race. Flanagan is closest in southern Minnesota but still trails Tafoya by 7 points there. In the Twin Cities, though, she leads Tafoya by 15 points.”

I think this poll misses the urban strength that Peggy Flanagan showed in the primary, especially in urban areas. It’s not just that she was strong, it’s that people turned out in higher numbers than normal. I expect more of that in the general election.

In Alaska there’s been a lot of talk about the gaming associated with Ranked Choice Voting (people withdrawing from the top four primary to favor another candidate). I don’t think that matters, especially in Peltola’s race. She has a shot at winning a majority of 50 percent, plus one, on election day. A recent poll by Alaska Survey Research shows her at 51 percent over incumbent Dan Sullivan’s 49 percent. But that’s Sullivan’s best numbers. Most polls (and the primary) have him in the low 40s.

The general problem for Republicans in all three races is that they have to get their voters enthusiastic when the president’s actions make that more difficult. Canadian tariffs begin today — and that will cost Alaska and Minnesota voters. And this nonsense of “New America” won’t bring any Republican voters to the polls in New Mexico.

Speaking of the majority, Rep. Sharice Davids, Ho-Chunk, is now the favorite in Kansas. This is so interesting because she won the seat in 2018 that had been held by a Republican and then after winning re-election, the Kansas legislature boosted Republican voters by about 12 percent in her district, hoping that move would knock her out. They failed. Now the district, nominally competitive, is rated as a solid D by Cook Political Report.

After Democrats win the House, we should expect Davids to take on more responsibility as a leader (she is a deputy whip now and ranking member on an Agriculture subcommittee,)

The tougher House races are in Alaska and Arizona.

In Alaska, Rep. Nick Begich easily cruised though the primary. Challenger Bill Hill, Dena’ina Athabascan, has to link Begich to unpopular Trump policies. The most recent polls show Begich with a 12-point lead and a margin big enough to win on election day. (Hill’s best shot is to keep Begich under 50 percent and convince nearly voter that he’s the best alternative using Ranked Choice Voting.)

Former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez has a similar problem in Arizona. He must remind voters that incumbent Rep. Eli Crane is a model Trumpian. And as such is responsible for Trump’s war, the affordability issues, and the tariff chaos. The most recent poll shows Nez is statistically tied with Crane. (Remember this is a district that Republicans designed as a safe seat in the last redistricting.)

From Politico:

“Despite a 12-point Republican party identification advantage in the district (Dem 29% – Rep 41% – Ind 30%), Nez trails Crane by just 2 points (Nez 44% – Crane 46% – Undecided 10%) — within the poll’s margin of error. Nez is winning where it counts. He holds a 22-point lead among independents and a 10-point lead among voters who recognize both candidates. Trump’s collapse in the district since 2024 creates real opportunity for Nez. Despite winning here by double digits, Trump is now underwater with voters (41% favorable – 53% unfavorable).”

There is one more factor for both Bill Hill and Jonathan Nez — the national vote. This goes back to the work reported in the Silver Bulletin: If Democrats win the national vote by more than ten points, that will result in a landslide that could sweep both Hill and Nez into office. (A ten point win would mean some 246 Democratic seats in the House, a significant majority.)

Indigenous candidates that are all but certain: Claire Valdez, Ysleta del Sur Pueblo, is in NY’s 7th district and is expected to win. She is a Democratic Socialist and an ally of New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Republican incumbents from Oklahoma, Rep. Tom Cole, Chickasaw and Rep. Josh Brecheen, Choctaw.