Overview:
Veteran Native American journalist Mark Trahant examines the Republican Party’s first-ever midterm convention in Dallas and what it reveals about the GOP’s strategy heading into the November 3 elections. Trahant analyzes President Donald Trump’s decision to make himself the central figure of the midterm campaign, the party’s messaging on the economy and Democrats, and what the convention may mean for Republican candidates seeking to hold control of Congress.
Native Vote 2026
Donald Trump made the pitch at his Republican mini-convention that he is the reason people will vote in the midterm election. “Pretend that I’m on the ballot. I’m on the ballot. I’m on. Just one more time,” he said.
To read more articles by Mark Trahant, go to: Marktrahant.substack.com
Funny. That’s exactly what Democrats want, too. This election as a referendum on the president and his policies.
Let’s think about how a national election might play out by looking at one state and district, Arizona.
Trump won Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District in 2024 by 15 points over Vice President Kamala Harris. Former Navajo Nation Jonathan Nez lost to Rep. Eli Crane by 9 points. That means Nez was more popular than his party nominee, Harris, by about 6 points. Since then Trump’s popularity has plummeted
One recent polls from Noble Insights shows Trump hitting the lowest polling number ever recorded in Arizona. He has a net approval rating of -19 among Arizona registered voters, or 39 percent approve of Trump’s job performance while 58 percent disapprove.
Noble found:
“At a personal level, individual Democratic officeholders are more popular than some high-level Republicans. Arizona’s Governor and two Senators – Katie Hobbs, Mark Kelly, and Ruben Gallego – boast 10+ point positive net favorability ratings, while President Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, and the Republican Gubernatorial nominee Andy Biggs are all below water or at the water line.
“Perceptions of the parties themselves are evenly divided, with the Democratic brand holding a slight edge in popularity over the Republican one.
“The personal popularity of Mark Kelly, Katie Hobbs, and Ruben Gallego comes from more than a party label,” said Noble. “A generic Democrat can’t expect to replicate it just with a ‘D’ next to their name.”
Donald Trump Job Approval
“While voters’ opinion of the direction of Arizona has held remarkably steady over the Second Trump Administration, their perception of Donald Trump has not. From NPI’s first AZPOP of the Second Trump administration, the president’s net job approval rating has fallen from +3 (50% approve; 47% disapprove) to -19 (39% approve; 58% disapprove). That marks Trump’s lowest net job approval rating ever recorded by AZPOP, falling below his previous low of -13 following the events of January 6, 2021.”
The one bright spot for Trump is that he is not as unpopular as Joe Biden was during his last few months in office.
Another note from the Republican mini-convention was the speech by T.W. Shannon from Oklahoma. Shannon is the former speaker of the House, he ran for the U.S. Senate against Markwayne Mullin, and is currently a candidate for Lt. Governor. He is a citizen of the Chickasaw Nation and has worked for the tribe in executive roles, including Chief Administrator.
He used his few minutes on stage to challenge the idea of systemic racism.
From The Oklahoman:
“During his five-minute speech, Shannon advocated for private school tax credits and criticized Democrats and the media, which he claimed “tells you that America was built by immigrants.”
“America wasn’t built by immigrants,” he said. “It was built by Americans.”
“He talked about growing up in Lawton — where “victimhood” was not allowed at his kitchen table — and serving as the first Black and Chickasaw speaker of the Oklahoma House.
“But I want to tell you what happened. Democrats have failed Black men like me,” he said immediately after talking about his barrier-breaking time in the state House. “They have these crazy ideas, like raising taxes to pay for reparations.”
“The fake news media, they tell you that America is the home of systemic racism. It’s not. America is not the home of systemic racism. It is the home of systemic opportunity.”
Of course the big take away from last week was Trump’s promise to give every adult $5,000 if Republicans win the House and Senate. Good luck with that.
