Gas Prices at the Pump

Guest Opinion

The price of gas at the pump is a factor in calculating the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and it is also an assessment of our national energy policy. It is more accessible for the public to understand than the complex economics of oil and gas across the futures market, where the trading price of a barrel of oil is determined. As it turns out, it is also a good indicator of presidential popularity.

This is a reprint of the March 2026 article “Unintended Consequences.” Because it is so relevant now and over the next few weeks, I thought it was important enough to share again.

The Factor of Gasoline Prices

The price of gasoline per gallon was first documented by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1978, eight months after President Jimmy Carter announced his energy policy. At the time, gasoline cost $0.63 per gallon. Through the George W. Bush administration, prices never rose above $1.80 per gallon.

However, gasoline prices increased to $3.622 per gallon as of April 2012. The rise began in April 2005, when gasoline broke the $2-per-gallon barrier. In May 2007, it broke the $3-per-gallon barrier. Prices then surpassed $4 per gallon in April 2008, reaching $4.10 per gallon, an all-time high. Gasoline prices reached another all-time high in 2022.

When gas prices are high, they correlate at -0.52 with presidential approval ratings, although the confidence level is only 27%. This is still a significant percentage to consider when assessing presidential popularity, and only one president did not fit this correlation. That was during the first year of President Ronald Reagan’s first term. Gas prices were high, but scholars have concluded that the public was still blaming President Carter for the decline in gas prices, so Reagan’s popularity was not affected by gasoline prices.

One study found that “increasingly expensive gasoline can be more easily discerned and evaluated than can a presidential decision to veto a price ceiling on the production of ‘old’ domestic crude oil.”

The price of gas at the pump provides a readily understood measure of the cost of gasoline, with historical data tracing prices from 1929 to 2015.

Correlation Between Presidential Approval and Gas Prices at the Pump

U.S. involvement in the Middle East has often triggered increases in oil prices. A study from Data for Progress charts the Afghanistan withdrawal under President Joe Biden and its strong correlation with gas prices.

Official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the federal government’s official source of energy data, is not yet available. The latest data cited in the original analysis is from March 3, 2026. An unofficial report from The Wall Street Journal shows the impact on gas prices at the pump following the start of the conflict with Iran.

Predictions of Presidential Approval

To test research suggesting that 52% of a president’s approval rating can be attributed to the price of gas at the pump, I created a bar chart showing presidential approval ratings following the first 100 days in office, overlaid with nominal gasoline prices during the same period.

The gasoline prices were sourced from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and historical Bureau of Labor Statistics data. I selected the monthly average for April or May of each inauguration year to match the 100-day window.

Just by “eye-balling” this chart—a colloquial statistical term—you can see that the relationship is inversely proportional. Gas prices at the pump account for only 52% of presidential popularity, meaning factors that make up the other 48% could skew the overall chart, such as the effects of COVID-19.

The midterm election almost always favors the party that does not hold the White House, but conceivably, lower gas prices at the pump might affect that outcome. So, if gas prices come down before the midterm elections, would that have an impact on the outcome? Possibly.

If gas prices remain high, they will most certainly tilt the balance in favor of the usual swing toward the party not in the White House during midterm elections.

But election watchers and campaign advisers should be watching the gas pumps.

To read more articles by Professor Sutton go to:  https://profvictoria.substack.com/ 

Professor Victoria Sutton (Lumbee) is a law professor on the faculty of Texas Tech University. In 2005, Sutton became a founding member of the National Congress of American Indians, Policy Advisory Board to the NCAI Policy Center, positioning the Native American community to act and lead on policy issues affecting Indigenous communities in the United States.