Overview:
The article examines the 2026 congressional landscape for Native candidates, highlighting competitive races involving Sean McCann, Jonathan Nez and Bill Hill while exploring how the generic ballot and voter turnout could shape House control.
Native Vote 2026
It’s nearly impossible to read up-to-the-minute polls that track congressional races. There are internal polls, those run by the candidates, but they don’t collect the type of information that gives clues about what kind of voters will show up between now and Election Day.
To read more articles by Mark Trahant, go to: Marktrahant.substack.com
Historically the best predictor of the House has been the generic poll, a question asked across the country about voters favoring Democrats or Republicans. Real Clear Politics’ average of all polls shows Democrats with a 7.8 percent advantage over Republicans.
But average has a lot of variables. Rasmussen Reports shows Democrats with only a 3 point lead going into the final four weeks. “The battle to control the House of Representatives has become more competitive, as the Democratic Party’s lead over Republicans has decreased for the second week in a row,” most recent survey said. On the other hand, The Economist/YouGov poll shows an 11 point lead for Democrats. One reason for the difference: Rasmussen uses a “likely voter” screen while the The Economist/YouGov is registered voters. Figuring out who will vote — and that motivation is the key.
In 2018 Democrats had a 7.3 point lead in the Real Clear Polling averages and the actually tally was an 8.4 point lead and a pick-up of 40 seats (ending 8 years of Republican control of the House.)
What do we know about the Native candidates in this cycle — and what clues does the generic ballot offer?
First: Certainty or near certainty.
Oklahoma Republican incumbents Tom Cole, Chickasaw, and Josh Brecheen, Choctaw, should win re-election without much fuss. Last election, Cole won by almost 40 points — a formidable gap.
In New York, Democratic nominee Claire Valdez, Ysleta del Sur Pueblo, is running in a district skewed toward Democrats. This is one of only 60 open races for the House where an incumbent is not on the ballot.
Then in Kansas, incumbent Sharice Davids, Ho-Chunk, has taken a district that was once competitive and reshaped as a safe Democratic seat. This is such a huge accomplishment.
Second: The competitive seats.
Michigan’s 4th congressional district is a true competitive seat. Recent polls report a tie between incumbent Bill Huizenga, a Republican, and challenger Sean McCann, Citizen Potawatomi Nation.
One recent poll shows McCann with a one-point lead (which really means a toss up race because the numbers are within the margin of error). But there are some interesting issues popping up that favor McCann. The GBAO poll found 56 percent of voters in the west Michigan district view President Trump unfavorably, compared to 39 percent who approve of the job he’s doing.
That’s the kind of head winds that fit into the generic poll and the number of seats Democrats can potentially pick up.
Arizona’s 2nd congressional district is more competitive than it should be. Former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez is once again challenging incumbent Rep. Eli Crane.
This district was designed for a Republican win. Nez has to considerable strengths, first a high turnout of Native voters (two years ago Nez did better than Kamala Harris by 3.5 points.) This is one where the generic ballot question could be the tell, if The Economist/YouTube survey is correct — 11 point Democratic lead — then he will be the first Native American to win a seat in Congress. (Conversely if Rasmussen is right, Nez will come up short again.) Then again a strong Native American turnout from 12 tribal nations could be the difference.
Another safe seat race is in Hawaii where Republican state senator Brenton Awa, Native Hawaiian, is challenging incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda. The district is favors Democrats by double-digits and so Awa would have to convince voters that he’s not a Trump guy. Good luck with that.
Finally, the race for Alaska’s at large seat is an up hill one for Bill Hill, Dena’ina Athabascan. This is sort of like Avenger’s End Game when Dr. Strange goes through a variety of scenarios in a psychic sequence and ends up with only one possible route for a successful outcome.
Hill is running against Rep. Nick Begich III who has been polling around 50 percent.
In order to win, Hill would have to see Begich remain under 50 percent. Then the ballot would go to ranked choice voting, and basically, Hill would need to be every voter’s second choice.
Most simulations show Begich winning in either the first or second round.
But again, this goes back to the generic ballot. If the election is indeed a wave election — and Democrats have an 11 point lead or greater, well, then Hill could still win. Long shot but possible.
Another method looking forward is to run simulations (computer projections based on polls and other data). The site 270towin.com has a consensus projection that gives Democrats a 97 percent chance of taking control (only 3 seats are needed). Its consensus view is 220 seats. That’s more aligned with the Rasmussen side of polling than The Economist/YouGov. If latter is right, that’s a mor historic shift, in the 40 seat range, or a Democratic majority of some 235 seats.
