Overview:
A new poll shows Democrat Jonathan Nez within two points of Republican incumbent Eli Crane in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, despite the district’s strong Republican lean and Donald Trump’s 15-point victory there in 2024.
Native Vote 2026
Democrat Jonathan Nez, the former president of the Navajo Nation, is statistically tied with Republican incumbent Rep. Eli Crane in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, according to a new poll that shows the former Navajo Nation president within the margin of error despite a significant Republican advantage in party identification.
The poll found Crane leading Nez 46% to 44%, with 10% of voters undecided. The two-point difference falls within the poll’s margin of error.
The district has historically favored Republicans. President Donald Trump carried the district by 15 percentage points in 2024, while Crane won his reelection bid by 9 points, underperforming Trump’s performance.
The poll also found that Republicans hold a 12-point advantage in party identification, with 41% of respondents identifying as Republican, compared with 29% who identify as Democrats and 30% who are independents.
Despite that advantage, Nez holds a 22-point lead among independent voters, according to the poll. He also leads among voters who recognize both candidates.
The results indicate a potentially competitive race in a district where Crane’s support has weakened compared with Trump’s performance, according to the polling data.
“I’m unsurprised that the polls show a close race,” Nez said. “As I travel across the district, it’s clear that everybody is hurting because of Congressman Eli Crane’s harmful policies. There’s a dire water crisis, costs are skyrocketing, and healthcare is being ripped from thousands of families.”
Nez said voters are concerned about the cost of living, foreign policy and government corruption.
“Voters are tired of rising gas and grocery costs, endless wars, and blatant corruption at the hands of Crane,” Nez said. “People are going to the polls this November to create change.”
Nez was the Democratic nominee for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District in 2024 and previously served as president of the Navajo Nation. He grew up in rural Arizona, where he helped his family operate a ranch without running water or electricity.
He began his public service career in Shonto on the Navajo Nation before serving in several community positions and being elected Navajo Nation president in 2018.
Nez is campaigning on lowering costs for families, improving water security and increasing the voice of rural Arizonans in Congress.
The poll follows an Aug. 27 analysis by GBAO that found Nez within striking distance of Crane in the district.
Nez lives in Flagstaff with his wife, Phefelia, and their two sons.
