Minnesota Senate: Liar? ‘Give Me a Freakin’ Break’

Native Vote 2026

The right wing buzz has made Peggy Flanagan their favorite target. Donald Trump endorsed her opponent, Michele Tafoya, in the Minnesota Senate race.

And Flanagan’s response: “The most corrupt president of all time just called me a liar from the Oval Office. Give me a freakin’ break.”

To read more articles by Mark Trahant, go to: Marktrahant.substack.com

This has been quite a week — and the mainstream media is buying all the crap that’s coming from that right wing disinformation machine.

First, there’s the polls. It’s a big deal that Cook Political Report moved Minnesota from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.”

Or does that matter? Flanagan, White Earth Nation, has consistently held a small lead in statewide polls, but that misses out on key context.

Trump’s endorsement represents a deeper tie between Tafoya and Trump. Logical right? But also tough politics. Trump’s approval rating in Minnesota is about as bad as it can be. (Flanagan’s messaging has reinforced this, and used the endorsement to raise more campaign funds.) And campaign staff for a Republican House candidate in Minnesota accidentally posted on a website: ““The President is not popular, so all messaging should be focused on local politics and needs.”

From KSTP survey:

“Trump remains at a personal low of -25, but his unpopularity continues to deepen among many Minnesotans.

“Only 16% of respondents “strongly approve” of Trump’s job performance; 21% “somewhat approve,” 10% “somewhat disapprove” and 52% “strongly disapprove.”

“By demographic, Trump’s support fell among: men, under age-65 voters, Democrats, Independents, voters without any college education, renters, urbanites, suburbanites and Twin Cities voters. He gained support among: 65+ age voters, Republicans, voters with some college education, voters making at least $40,000, voters in southern, northeast and western Minnesota.

“Additionally, Trump’s handling of the Iran war has reached a new low of -40 while his managing of the economy is down to -27.”

What’s dragging Flanagan down is that she was on the ticket along with Gov. Tim Walz. He is unpopular because of a social services fraud. Critics say as lieutenant governor she should have done more.

Again from the KSTP survey:

“Walz continues at his personal low of -14, but he too sees the lowest positive approval percentage of his tenure.

“Only 18% of respondents “strongly approve” of Walz’s job performance; 22% “somewhat approve,” 16% “somewhat disapprove” and 38% “strongly disapprove.”

So will that be enough for Tafoya to overcome the “lean Democrat” rating? Beyond the polls, the big question will be about the profile of those who cast ballots. Sure, Republicans are set for Tafoya. But what about independents? And what about the Native vote?

A KARE news poll says the undecided voters are just that, undecided.

“As may be expected, Democrats overwhelmingly favor Flanagan (92% to 3%) and Republicans overwhelmingly favor Tafoya (98% to 2%); however, independent voters are still very much in play. The poll found 35% of independent voters said they’d vote for Flanagan, 40% said they’d vote for Tafoya, and 24% of independents said they remain undecided.?

The latest Trafalgar statewide poll has an interesting tab on the state’s diversity. As usual, the Native American voter is not identified, there’s nothing beyond a 1 percent “other.” But that poll shows Flanagan with a significant lead with African American voters, and a steady lead with Hispanic voters (as well as white voters). Tafoya has a lead in that poll with Asian voters.

Why is it so close? Or, is it just hype. Larry Jacobs of the University of Minnesota Humphrey School of Public Affairs told KSTP:

“So for Republicans looking to invest, in Minnesota it’s about opportunity cost,” he told 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS. “They don’t want to spend money in Minnesota that could be spent elsewhere, where Republicans have a better chance of winning.”

“Other Midwestern states are attracting much more outside money and attention than Minnesota, with Ohio at $305 million and Michigan at $252 million, both much bigger states than Minnesota. But even Iowa, at $138 million, is attracting more than five times what we’re seeing in Minnesota.”

Beyond the polls, I think the story will be turnout. If you remember back to the primary, the actual votes cast for Flanagan was stronger than her polls. Her voters did the work.

Again, Larry Jacobs, this time on Minnesota Public Radio talking about Flanagan’s advertising strategy, reminding voters of Trump and ICE.

“… It’s really meant to remind folks in the Twin Cities about ICE, and the Metro Surge, and try to get them to the polls to say, you’ve got to turn out the vote. You’ve got to remember this.

”And so I think it’s really aimed at that particular audience. If Flanagan gets a huge turnout in the metro area and does well in the suburbs, she’ll win. So that’s the strategy here is to really engage, turn out, fire up her base of support who are still quite furious about Metro Surge.”

One more story that might help Flanagan pick up a few more votes. The Wall Street Journal published a gotcha “investigation” that said Peggy Flanagan inflated her resume about her academic record. Only the story fell apart when the academic honor society Phi Beta Kappa released a statement correcting the Wall Street Journal and said Flanagan was indeed a member. (Isn’t that the first call a reporter should make?)

You’d think it would be enough to have a vigorous and healthy debate about policy, about ICE, about the presidency of Donald Trump. And it’s going to be hard for any Republican to attract independents and other voters to their cause at this point. Every time Trump opens his mouth, there are more reasons to vote the other way.

At least a couple hundred thousand Minnesotans are immune from the silly season. They’ve already voted.