Overview:

Abdul El-Sayed's narrow victory in Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate primary underscores the growing political influence of rural and Native voters, demonstrating that sustained outreach to the Upper Peninsula and Tribal communities can provide the decisive margin in closely contested statewide elections.

Native Vote 2026

Analysis

I have a few observations about Michigan’s Democratic primary election for U.S. Senate yesterday. As a Yooper and someone who lives in a Tribal community, this is not commentary on policy issues or about a candidate, but rather on the voting patterns.

1. There’s been a lot of commentary touting the “conventional wisdom” about where liberals can get votes and where they can’t. Abdul El-Sayed won the Upper Peninsula as a whole. This part of Michigan is as rural as anywhere in America and tends to be older and less racially diverse. El-Sayed spent meaningful time in the U.P. and invested in organizing efforts.

2. Abdul El-Sayed won the U.P. by 4,405 votes. He won statewide by 14,898 votes. That means nearly 30% of his margin of victory came from the U.P. alone.

3. Abdul El-Sayed won all but two of the counties where Michigan’s 12 federally recognized Tribes are located. All are in rural areas. Again, he spent meaningful time courting Native voters and working with local organizers.

4. If you look only at the counties where the 12 Tribes have their headquarters—not a precise measure of the Native population, but one that also reflects tribal government employees—El-Sayed won by 3,991 votes. That accounts for 27% of his statewide margin of victory.

Dr. Abdul El-Sayed with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) at campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Mich. on July 19, 2026. (Photo/Levi Rickert)

5. Democratic candidates running in statewide races in Michigan don’t often devote much time or many resources to these two areas. But you can’t write off any voters. Those of us in the often-forgotten parts of Michigan can decide close races. Spending meaningful time in our communities and making even modest investments of campaign resources can make a significant difference in the outcome of these elections.

I want to see more candidates spend time meeting us where we are. That old-school style of politics still works.

Bryan Newland is the former assistant secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior – Indian Affairs, who resides in the Bay Mills Indian Community in Brimley, Michigan.