Guest Opinion

The prediction of a coming Ice Age was first published in a 1956 article in Science magazine after research into the causes of past ice ages led researchers to predict that another one would come.

I will share a personal story with you, which I do not often do. Since I was at the United States Environmental Protection Agency at a pivotal time in history — with the first introduction of climate change research and the first Framework Convention on Climate Change led by the United States — it may be worth sharing. I had just graduated with a Ph.D. in Environmental Sciences, with risk communication as the specialized area of my dissertation expertise. As a political appointee of George H. W. Bush, I was assigned to what we called the “policy shop” as a communications specialist. It was my dream job.

I remember one day cleaning up the media room, and there was a documentary on The Coming Ice Age. I thought it should be useful given the discussion about global warming, right? I was told it needed to go into storage. I was confused at first, but I got the message. Even though we knew there was a coming Ice Age, talking about it would muddle the message about global warming.

In an interesting turn, just this month, former Vice President Al Gore talked about a coming Ice Age in Europe at the Conference of Parties meeting (COP30) on the global climate treaty. COP30 also revised its predictions for global warming, discrediting the extreme predictions of the warming models and saying the warming will likely fall more within the moderate range of model predictions. The organization reduced the predicted worst-case-scenario warming from 4.5 degrees C to 3.5 degrees C. But do not celebrate too quickly — the selection of the moderate range is also because the IPCC found that the lower-level model predicting a 1.5 degrees C rise has largely been determined to be too low. The models typically used three predictive levels — low, moderate, and extreme/worst-case-scenario — accounting for uncertainties in the factors used to run the models and the assumptions involved.

This is not to say that Al Gore has changed his position on global warming, only that he has introduced the complicating factor of a coming Ice Age, which had not often been discussed in this context. Some believed global warming might even prevent an Ice Age altogether. More to the point, however, he was trying to say there will be regional differences — some regions will experience warming while others will experience cooling.

The Science

The “ice age” mechanism is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) — the system that includes the Gulf Stream and pulls warm tropical water northward. A June 2025 study in Geophysical Research Letters found that, in an intermediate emissions scenario, greenhouse gas-driven warming would not outweigh the cooling impact of an AMOC collapse. As shown in the diagram, the collapse of the warm (red) currents would be overwhelmed by the cooling (blue) currents, resulting in greater cooling.

In that model, one in 10 winters in London could experience cold extremes approaching -20°C, while winter extremes in Oslo could plunge to around -48°C. The “State of the Cryosphere” report says AMOC may be heading toward collapse because of ice melt and warming waters, with impacts that could include Northern Europe cooling faster than 3°C per decade, “with no realistic means of adaptation.”

In a fortunate turn of events for Europe, it appears global warming may delay the coming ice age from 50,000 years to 100,000 years from now.

Still, the picture remains unclear even after a review of 34 climate models. A 2025 study in Nature examined the future stability of AMOC in 34 climate models and found that an AMOC collapse this century was “unlikely.” Research published in Nature Geoscience in 2025 found AMOC would experience “limited weakening” of 18% to 43% by 2100, even in a very-high-emissions scenario.

There are also predictions of a coming “mini Ice Age.”

Climate change vs. global warming

“Climate change” would seem to be the better description, but it misses the warning embedded in the phrase “global warming.” Historically, climate change was first discussed in science in 1956, while global warming emerged in 1975. Thereafter, global warming dominated the messaging, but in the 2000s, climate change began replacing global warming to better describe the complexity of regional changes.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained consistent since its formation in 1988. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was the first treaty that launched the many treaties and protocols that followed. The three panels of the IPCC — science, policy, and economics — have consistently met to develop consensus reports on these topics, and they have maintained their original name reflecting “climate change.”

Final thoughts

Climate change is complex, and messaging that is so simple it leaves out critical parts of the problem has probably contributed to distrust in government and science. It has also likely contributed to the political polarization of the issue, where it is viewed as black and white when it is mostly gray.

Thirty years of the world’s meetings on climate change predictions, targets, and timetables have demonstrated unprecedented cooperation in trying to understand a global phenomenon and potential threat. Adjusting climate models to reflect the vast amounts of data collected over recent decades is exactly what should be happening. Further, perhaps more discussion about the complexity of the predictions should become more common. Then extremist ideas such as geoengineering would be easier to recognize as misguided.

It is a complex issue, and for decades it has been presented too simply, creating distrust and focusing too heavily on reducing energy use in ways directly tied to damaging the economy. More discussion about adaptation and mitigation — and less about reducing global GDP to levels of economic ruin — might even lead to greater efficiencies in energy usage and more unified thinking in a global approach to the phenomenon based on these realities.

To read more articles by Professor Sutton go to:  https://profvictoria.substack.com/ 

Professor Victoria Sutton (Lumbee) is a law professor on the faculty of Texas Tech University. In 2005, Sutton became a founding member of the National Congress of American Indians, Policy Advisory Board to the NCAI Policy Center, positioning the Native American community to act and lead on policy issues affecting Indigenous communities in the United States.