Native Vote 2026
Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted its rating of Alaska’s U.S. Senate race to a toss-up, a development that the campaign of former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola (Yup’ik) says reflects growing momentum behind her bid to unseat incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, Republican and avid Trump supporter.
The updated rating was announced Thursday, prompting a statement from Peltola’s campaign highlighting what it described as an expanding coalition of supporters across the state.
“Alaskans know there is only one candidate in this race who will fight to fix the rigged system in DC and put Alaska first,” Alaskans for Mary Campaign Manager Elisa Rios said in a statement. “Mary will win this November by going everywhere and talking to everyone, uniting a broad coalition of Alaskans who are tired of Dan Sullivan’s price-hiking agenda and failed leadership in the Senate. Alaskans deserve an independent voice in the United States Senate who will stand up to anyone to deliver results – and that person is Mary Peltola.”
According to the campaign, the revised race rating reflects Peltola’s statewide outreach efforts, which have included visits to communities from Fairbanks to Juneau, volunteer events, meet-and-greets with residents, and tours of villages and towns across Alaska. The campaign also highlighted activities such as dog sledding with supporters as part of its voter engagement strategy.
The campaign contrasted Peltola’s platform with Sullivan’s record in office, criticizing the incumbent for supporting U.S. involvement in Iran and referencing reports that he had sought campaign contributions for travel expenses.
Peltola’s campaign said she has advanced proposals aimed at reducing corruption in Washington, D.C., and lowering costs for Alaskans while emphasizing issues affecting the state, including declining fish populations and the rising cost of living.
“As Alaskans have faced crushing price hikes, declining fish populations, and an assault on the Alaska way of life from out of touch Lower 48 special interests – they know Mary will always fight for them,” the campaign said in its statement.
The campaign also pointed to its grassroots organization, saying more than 9,700 Alaskans from over 120 communities have signed up to support Peltola’s Senate bid and that volunteers are active in every borough and census area across the state.
The race is expected to be among the most closely watched Senate contests in the country heading into the November election.
