Overview:
The piece argues that President Donald Trump’s campaign visits to Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, Ohio and Alaska reflect a broader Republican strategy to deploy presidential time and resources across states where Senate and other down-ballot races could affect Republican control of Congress.
Like many, I have been reading the back and forth about President Donald Trump’s campaign visit to the Choctaw Nation in Oklahoma. Most of the discussion in Indian Country is about the appropriateness of the Choctaw Event Center as a campaign site.
Choctaw Nation Principal Chief Gary Batton released a statement saying he welcomes Trump to the reservation.
“This is the third time we have had the honor of a sitting U.S. president coming to the Choctaw Nation, and we welcome President Trump,” Batton said. “We hope his visit provides an opportunity to learn more about what we do as a sovereign nation for our members and for all people in southeast Oklahoma.”
While the event center is owned by the tribe, a spokesperson for the nation said it is only renting the venue, not sponsoring or organizing the event. And he added the event’s location is not an endorsement of Mazzei, Trump’s hand-picked candidate to be Oklahoma’s next governor.
He also said he didn’t know why the GOP picked Durant. The New York Times reported that Republican Party sources said Durant was chosen for its proximity to Texas and that it could boost GOP candidates in both states.
That last line is what interests me: Oklahoma and Texas. Deep red states where Republicans are spending a lot of time and money.
Every election is a multi-level chess game about where to spend time and money. (The former is extremely limited, while the money part, well, these days it’s practically unlimited.) But there is only so much time — and the October 1st rally is just a little more than month from Election Day. Precious time.
Zoom out and look at where Republicans are playing defense.
Trump’s Oklahoma visit is also about Texas.
Republicans (and Democrats) are breaking records for spending in the Senate race between former state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Houston Public Media says the race is on track to more than double the previous record and hit $440 million in spending by Nov. 3.
“It’s unprecedented, quite honestly,” said Jason Tinnel, professor of practice at the University of Houston’s Valenti School of Communication. “I have never seen it to the point to where I thought it was a presidential campaign, because of how many ads you’re seeing for both candidates.”
“The spending on TV, radio, and social media advertising in the Texas Senate contest would likely be massive regardless of the dynamics of the race. Part of that is simple geography. Texas is huge, with 18 distinct media markets, and there are a lot of people to reach.
“To go up on broadcast specifically in all the different media markets of Texas is quite expensive, and so that’s part of what is also driving the increased spending in the state,” Fowler said.
“Add to that the fact that the race is arguably the most competitive Senate contest Texas has seen since the late 1980s, when Democratic Sen. Lloyd Bentsen won his last term while simultaneously running unsuccessfully for vice president. Both Republicans and Democrats are determined to do whatever they can to boost turnout — either by pumping up their bases or luring over undecided voters.”
This Trump campaign swing hits Alabama this weekend. Another state where Republicans should not have to invest resources. Deep red. And a lot of voters will be unhappy about the visit because it upset university football-related events.
He will also campaign in Ohio — the only state on this tour map that makes sense. Trump carried Ohio two years ago by a margin of 11 percent — and most of the GOP ticket is either even or underwater.
From the Columbus Dispatch:
“The president’s visit comes amid a heated race for U.S. Senate between Republican Sen. Jon Husted and former Sen. Sherrod Brown. The outcome could help decide which party controls the Senate for the remainder of Trump’s term. Polls suggest the contest is close, leading Republicans and Democrats to flood the Buckeye State with ad money.”
The latest Marist poll (updated Sept. 29) shows Brown with an 8 point lead, 51 to 43 percent. (My bet: Trump’s visit will make those numbers even worse for Husted.)
Trump is also working to keep Alaska in the Republican column. Today he will announce an $54 billion investment in the state by South Korea. This is the perfect model for any incumbent, spending someone else’s money to buy political support.
From the Associated Press:
The investment would mark the second time this week that the Republican president has sought to highlight the promise of foreign investment made possible by his administration’s trade policy in states where Republican Senate candidates are in tight election campaigns. He made a similar announcement on Monday in the Oval Office for a massive steel plant in Iowa.
The Alaska investment comes from pledges made as part of a 2025 trade deal with South Korea, which included promises of $350 billion in U.S. investments in exchange for lower U.S. tariffs on South Korean cars, auto parts and other products.
Here is the choice for voters — in Trump’s own context — do you bank on an investment down the road, or do you vote against high fuel that’s hitting families now. Alaska has some of the highest gas prices in the nation, in some villages it can exceed $10 or $12 a gallon.
Red Idaho
Trump has no need to go to Idaho, but … there are warning signs here too. Polling is about as nonsensical as can be imagined. Peak Insights polling August 11 through the 13th found the incumbent, Jim Risch, up 34 points. Absolutely normal for Idaho. But other polls show independent Todd Achilles up five points. Or minus 4. That’s quite a range.
The Idaho Statesman quotes Boise State University Political Science professor Jeffery Lyons:
“Lyons said he tries to put all election polling into context. In a deep-red state like Idaho, he said, he’d “be surprised” for any Republican candidate to lose to any non-Republican candidate in a statewide election. But the Achilles poll may still be capturing a real trend — perhaps that he’s garnering many Democrats’ votes, or that independent voters are breaking overwhelmingly for him…”
So likely Republican, but you never know. (Part of the problem for pollsters is trying to figure out what voters will actually show up at the polls. In past elections, Donald Trump underperforms in polling, but has a better turn out on Election Day. Will that happen when he’s not on the ballot.)
I think another factor that’s not easily measured is Risch’s age. He is 83 now — and will be pushing 90 if he stays in office six more years. It may be that most Idaho Republicans back him anyway, but is it a reason to vote.
One more Idaho note: One of the craziest things on the ballot. A measure to pick the state’s gun. And it’s not even a real vote, just an advisory message to the legislature.
Geesh.
(There are two historical Winchesters, a colt, an M-1, and a Remington. What’s not on the list are any Brownings. Too bad. At least there’s an interesting history since the Browning family started next door in Utah.)
I wonder what the Trump weapon of choice would be? My bad. It’s the words from his mouth.
